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Over the next decade, \u201cself-driving\u201d as a feature of\u00a0transportation will become as commonplace as cruise control. Forecasts suggest<\/a> that\u00a0by 2050, the autonomous vehicle (AV) industry could\u00a0be worth a staggering $7 trillion<\/a>. To put\u00a0this\u00a0in perspective,\u00a0that’s almost twice the size of Germany\u2019s entire economy.\u00a0Like any new technology, self-driving cars represent a significant new opportunity. But they also pose\u00a0significant new risks.\u00a0<\/span> Going Mainstream<\/strong><\/p>\n <\/strong> <\/p>\n Like elevators, AV technology will completely transform urban mobility. The expectation is that AVs will provide needed relief to overloaded transportation systems with driverless vehicles freeing more than 250 million hours<\/a> of commuting time each year. Driverless vehicles will help smooth traffic flow and reduce congestion by\u00a0automating\u00a0transportation across ever-advancing telecommunications networks. But even as the capabilities of\u00a0AVs continue to evolve, it’s not a given that consumers will\u00a0choose to buy them. What is more likely is that the on-demand nature of\u00a0driverless cars\u00a0will reshape the transportation industry altogether.<\/p>\n The End of Car Ownership? <\/strong> <\/p>\n One key challenge for AV legislation is the issue of ownership. The current legal assumption is that AVs will be purchased and owned by customers.\u00a0But what is more likely is that AVs will simply accelerate the shift to transportation-as-a-service<\/a>. The fact is that the\u00a0number of 16 to 44-year olds obtaining a driver\u2019s license in the United States has been steadily declining since 1983.\u00a0Indeed, the\u00a0number of people\u00a0getting\u00a0driver\u2019s licenses has been\u00a0decreasing across every age group<\/a>.<\/p>\n Nearly\u00a01.3 million people die<\/a>\u00a0in traffic fatalities each year\u2014 94% of these deaths are the result of human error<\/a>. The hope is that or self-driving cars will significantly reduce this number by largely automating transportation.\u00a0Studies suggest that AVs could save over half a million lives each decade. In addition to saving lives, self-driving cars will mean significant cost savings: Traffic accidents cost\u00a0$500 billion<\/a>\u00a0worldwide each year. Self-driving car networks\u00a0could mean drastically reducing insurance claims if not eliminating personal injury insurance altogether.<\/p>\n Regulating AVs in the United States<\/strong><\/p>\n <\/strong> <\/p>\n The key issue is risk. Widespread\u00a0fears remain that self-driving cars are not entirely safe. While companies can be very successful testing AVs within closed environments, they will eventually need to deploy fleets of self-driving cars on public roads at scale in order to determine their level of safety. This effectively puts the public at the center of potentially high-risk research environments.<\/p>\n Like many new and disruptive technologies, AV legislation\u00a0remains fragmented across a patchwork of state directives and voluntary guidelines<\/a>. In the end, it\u2019s up to Congress to provide a federal framework, including funding for the National Highway Traffic Safety Administration (NHTSA). Absent federal standards,\u00a0driverless\u00a0cars will have some way to go before becoming mainstream. Nonetheless, forecasts suggest that there could be as many as\u00a021 million driverless cars in the United States<\/a>\u00a0and\u00a027 million in Europe<\/a>\u00a0over the coming decade.<\/p>\n Autonomous vehicles face significant hurdles but\u00a0they are coming<\/a>. The market is simply too large to ignore. Notwithstanding two fatal accidents<\/a> involving semi-autonomous vehicles last March, testing of the technology continues. In 2016, GM spent\u00a0$581 million<\/a>\u00a0to acquire Cruise Automation. Last\u00a0February, Ford announced that it would be investing\u00a0$1 billion in Argo AI<\/a>. And of course\u00a0Tesla already\u00a0offers enhanced autopilot.\u00a0Transitioning to a self-driving\u00a0society\u00a0will take time. Smart\u00a0federal\u00a0oversight\u00a0will be essential to getting it\u00a0right.<\/span><\/p>\n \u00a0<\/p>\n<\/div>\n
\nBefore AVs can become ubiquitous, they\u00a0will first need to be regulated. And regulating\u00a0self-driving cars remains a complicated challenge.\u00a0<\/span> <\/p>\n