A<\/span>s driverless cars become more capable and more common<\/a>, they will change people\u2019s travel habits, not only around their own communities but across much larger distances. Our research has revealed just how much people\u2019s travel preferences could shift, and found a new potential challenge to the airline industry.<\/p>\n Imagine someone who lives in Atlanta and needs to travel to Washington, DC, for business. This is about a 10-hour drive<\/a>. A flight takes about two hours, assuming no delays. Add to that the drive to the airport, checking in, the security line, and waiting at the gate. Upon arrival in DC, it may take another 30 minutes to pick up any checked bags and find a rental car \u2014 and even more time to drive to the specific destination. The average person would estimate a total travel time of four to five fours<\/a>. Most people would choose to fly instead of driving themselves.<\/p>\n However, if they could have a fully driverless car<\/a> take them there, the choice changes. Passengers could eat, drink, work, and sleep during the 10-hour drive. They could leave whenever they want, and pack whatever they want \u2014 including liquids and pocketknives \u2014 with no searches or scans. When they get to DC, they wouldn\u2019t have to find a rental car and navigate to the actual place they\u2019re going.<\/p>\n Which would you choose? Now, imagine the self-driving car has a reclining seat with actual legroom, or even a bed. It\u2019s more than a little tempting.<\/p>\n See also: Why the Tesla \u201cRobo Taxi\u201d May Change US Cities Far More Than Uber Did<\/a><\/em><\/strong><\/p>\n As experts<\/a> in public opinion research<\/a>, we know that the American public loves how quickly flights can cover large distances<\/a> but hates the security checks, long lines, delays, risk of losing baggage<\/a>, and overall hassle of the flying experience.<\/p>\n We also know that, at the moment, most people are reluctant to ride in driverless vehicles \u2014 including school buses<\/a> and even ambulances<\/a> that could speed their treatment in an emergency. However, our data also shows that as people learn about the benefits of driverless cars<\/a>, they become more accepting of the new technology. Over time, people will feel comfortable using autonomous cars (and ambulances), just like they adjusted to riding in the first automobiles.<\/p>\n A future with driverless cars means people will have more options to avoid driving on their own, beyond trains and buses.<\/p>\n In our study<\/a>, we showed people trips of different lengths and asked them to choose whether they would rather drive themselves, take a flight, or ride in a self-driving car. In general, the data indicated that people always preferred driverless vehicles over manual driving. Taking a driverless car got even more attractive<\/a> if people were told that after flying, they would need a rental car in their destination city.<\/p>\n On short trips, with a five-hour drive, two-thirds of people would rather drive themselves. That didn\u2019t change much when they were offered a self-driving car unless they were told they would need a car in their destination city. Then, nearly three-quarters of people preferred a self-driving car to flying.<\/p>\n As trips got longer, people were increasingly likely to prefer flying, but self-driving cars were still a compelling option. On the longest trips we asked about, with a 45-hour drive, only about one in 10 people preferred driving themselves \u2014 but that changed to one in six when the option was to have a car drive itself.<\/p>\n In follow-up work, we\u2019re looking at how the costs of each transportation method might affect consumers\u2019 choices \u2014 including whether they\u2019re traveling alone or in a group with friends or family members.<\/p>\n Losing even one in 10 customers would substantially reduce airlines\u2019 revenue. They don\u2019t make much money<\/a> on each flight as it is; less income would likely cause them to shrink their service, flying fewer routes less frequently.<\/p>\n The problem wouldn\u2019t just be customers who choose not to fly. Some passengers might split trips between self-driving cars and airplanes, which would further reduce airlines\u2019 revenue. For instance, a person in Savannah, Georgia, who wants to go to London could choose to change planes in Atlanta<\/a> \u2014 or take a self-driving car to the Atlanta airport and skip the layover.<\/p>\n These changes could substantially change the aviation industry, with airlines ordering fewer airplanes from manufacturers, airports seeing fewer daily flights and lower revenue from parking lots, and even airport hotels hosting fewer guests. The future of driverless cars is appealing to consumers \u2014 which means the future of commercial flight is in danger.<\/p>\n This article was originally published on The Conversation<\/a> by Stephen Rice<\/a> and Scott Winter<\/a>. Read the original article here<\/a>.<\/em><\/strong><\/p>\n<\/div>\nWhat Do Consumers Say?<\/h2>\n
Do you want to skip the flight and take a drive?<\/strong><\/h2>\n
![\"plane](\"https:\/\/fsmedia.imgix.net\/06\/3c\/87\/fc\/3197\/4c23\/9783\/bca604c65bb3\/screen-shot-2019-06-20-at-123833-pmpng.png?auto=format%2Ccompress&w=375)
<\/source><\/picture><\/figure>\nHow Will This Affect the Airlines?<\/h2>\n
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