The Future of Self-Driving Cars

Introduction The Future of Self-Driving Cars

Self-driving car technology promises to transform transportation and mobility in the coming years. What practical innovations should we expect to see in the years ahead? What will the societal impacts be?

Maturing Driver Assistance Capabilities

Automakers have introduced increasingly sophisticated driver assistance features over the last 10 years. These capabilities provide a glimpse into the self-driving future by safely automating limited driving tasks:

• Lane keeping
• Automated emergency braking
• Self-parking
• Advanced cruise control

In the near term, better sensor processing and navigation algorithms will enable cars to handle more complex environments with less driver oversight.

For example, Tesla’s “Full Self-Driving” (FSD) beta software uses statistical modeling and neural networks to make driving decisions from sensor data. FSD shows the potential to enable reliable autonomous driving within 2-3 years, although still under human supervision pending regulatory approval.

Key FSD Capabilities:

• Navigate on autopilot
• Auto lane change
• Autopark
• Summon vehicle
• Traffic and stop sign control
• Automatic driving on city streets

Waymo has over 20 million miles of public road testing across multiple cities to train its self-driving software. Simulation further expands capabilities – in 2020 Waymo’s simulation fleet drove over 15 billion virtual test miles.

Paving the Road to Full Autonomy

Fully autonomous Level 5 vehicles that can drive themselves without human intervention will require breakthroughs in 3 key areas:

1. Artificial Intelligence
   • Achieving reliability comparable to human drivers across billions of edge case driving scenarios
2. Hardware Reliability
   • Onboard systems must reach extremely high reliability over decades
3. Infrastructure
   • High definition maps
   • Vehicle-to-vehicle (V2V) and vehicle-to-infrastructure (V2I) communication protocols

Most experts believe fully autonomous passenger vehicles are 5-10 years away from being commonplace. However, commercial transport applications on predictable fixed routes are nearing reality sooner.

For example, GM and Cruise’s Origin driverless shuttle exemplifies the ambition of the industry by completely reimagining interiors without traditional controls:

Societal Impacts

Safe, affordable autonomous mobility could transform economies and communities globally.

Benefits include:

• $400 billion annual market in the US by 2030
  • Increased productivity
  • Environmental sustainability
  • Improved road safety
  • Less congestion
  • Lower transportation costs
• New ownership models
  • Autonomous shuttles summonable on-demand
  • Self-driving bus fleets
• Democratized transportation access
  • Helps those lacking mobility options due to age, income, or disability

For example, door-to-door autonomous transit can greatly improve quality of life and access jobs, healthcare, and essential services.

Business Model Shifts

The rise of autonomous technology aligns with larger trends reshaping transportation:

Megatrends Transforming Mobility

Startups like Zoox and traditional automakers like Ford aim to lead the transition by reorienting around autonomous technology.

The next decades will determine winners/losers as self-driving redefines:

• Vehicles
• Business models
• The ethos of mobility

Seismic shifts in transportation always take time. But the age of the self-driving car is drawing Inexorably closer each year.

Real-World Impact Case Studies

Autonomous vehicles are already demonstrating value hauling freight and enabling accessibility:

Self-Driving Trucks Deliver Beer 🚚

In 2019, Anheuser-Busch completed the world’s first commercial shipment by self-driving truck – delivering beer over 120 highway miles in Colorado:

• Vehicle: Autonomous Freightliner Cascadia from startup Otto (owned by Uber)
• Route: Fort Collins to Colorado Springs
• Results:
  • Completed delivery in 3 hours (vs 5 hours by human driver)
  • Increased fuel efficiency by 15%

This pilot demonstrated a viable business model for autonomous trucks handling long haul routes safely.

Enabling Accessibility with Robotaxis 🚖

In 2020, Waymo launched the world’s first self-driving taxi service for public use in Phoenix, Arizona:

• 100% autonomous Chrysler Pacifica minivans
• Service area of ~50 square miles
• Over 10,000 trips completed under full autonomy

The early riders program aims to validate viability and accessibility for those lacking other transportation options before expanding territory:

• “This service will give people access to transportation whether or not they can drive.” – John Krafcik, Waymo CEO

Progress Continues Despite Setbacks

The road to developing fully autonomous vehicles has faced tragic setbacks, but also reflects diligent safety precautions overall:

Pros:

• Extensive virtual testing limits risky real-world trials
• Human safety drivers monitor most public testing
• Low millions of autonomous test miles per reported fatality

Cons:

• Highly-publicized crashes erode public confidence
• Complex edge-case scenarios remain challenging
• Perception and decision-making must match human competence

Tragically there have been 5 fatalities to date involving vehicles operating in autonomous mode:

These cases exposed flaws in existing technology under development. Companies self-imposed pauses to investigate causes and incorporate safety process improvements.

The industry continues working to ensure rigorous standards are met before achieving full Level 5 autonomy. Progress follows a marathon, not sprint mentality requiring patience and persistence.

The Road Ahead

Reaching the full potential of autonomous mobility remains years away as innovations continue around:

• Artificial intelligence
• Mechanics and high precision manufacturing
• Validation frameworks assessing safety
• Infrastructure coordination
• Public policy keeping pace with technology

Yet the destination promises such profound improvements to qualify of lives and economic efficiency that pressing forward remains imperative.

As Ford CEO Jim Farley noted on ambitions to lead the self-driving future:

“New businesses, new profit pools and new levels of customer loyalty await the winners. While delivery of self-driving services at scale is still years away, Ford has the drive, ideas and vision to create the transportation backbone for autonomous vehicles.“

Conclusion — The Future of Self-Driving Cars

✅ The key takeaway: While still years away, autonomous technology will transform mobility to be safer, greener and more accessible. Recognizing societal benefits helps weather near-term setbacks on the journey.

Whether startups or legacy automakers lead the way, private and public sectors must collaborate across technology, infrastructure, regulation and public policy to fully realize this mobility revolution. Patience and optimism remains vital – the pace of progress already achieves milestones once considered decades away just years ago.

The path ahead remains long, but the payoff merits undertaking the challenge. Self-driving innovation will shape the next generation of mobility to drive human progress through vastly improved access, sustainability and enriched experiences connecting communities globally.